Arsenal vs Manchester United – December 26, 2025

AI Model Confidence: 70.2% • Last updated: Nov 24, 2025 • 10,847 simulations run

Arsenal –1.25 is the model’s strongest lean of the week.

United are in free-fall: bottom-3 in xG conceded, Hojlund still injured, and ten Hag-ball has collapsed away from home (0.81 xG per game on the road). Arsenal’s set-piece dominance (18 goals from dead balls) meets the team that concedes the most corners in the league.

Best bets:

• Arsenal –1.25 Asian Handicap

• Over 3 goals
  

Biggest liability of Boxing Day across UK books is Arsenal –1.25. The line opened –1 and has been hammered to –1.5 in some places. United’s team total is down to 0.75 goals at some shops. Paul Tierney refs and loves cards: averaging 5.8 yellows per game and has already sent off two players in United matches this season.

Projection: Arsenal 3 – Manchester United 1 Disclaimer – For Entertainment & Educational Purposes Only The analysis, predictions, and information provided on this page are generated by an artificial intelligence model for entertainment and educational purposes only. They do not constitute gambling advice, betting tips, or a recommendation to wager money. Sports outcomes are inherently uncertain and past performance is not indicative of future results. You must be 18+ (or the legal age in your jurisdiction) to view this content. We do not facilitate betting, accept wagers, or receive any compensation from gambling operators. Always gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help.