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Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks – December 18, 2025
AI Model Confidence: 67.8% • Last updated: Nov 24, 2025 • 10,847 simulations run
Boston –4.5 feels short.
The Celtics are 15–2 SU with Porzingis active and have the best net rating in the league (+14.8) when the full starting five shares the floor. Milwaukee’s drop coverage gets destroyed by this lineup (1.38 PPP last three matchups). Giannis is probable but coming off a minor knee tweak and the Bucks are 2–6 ATS when he plays fewer than 32 minutes.
Best bets:
Celtics –4.5 (5.9% edge)
Tatum over 31.5 points + rebounds
Line movement: opened Celtics –3, steamed to –5, now –4.5 with juice on Boston. Reverse line movement means respected money grabbed Bucks early and books are trying to middle. Giannis minutes prop sits at 30.5 — lowest of the season. Boston’s second unit has the best bench net rating in the league.
Projection: Celtics 119 – Bucks 109
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