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Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles – December 8, 2025 (NFL Week 14)
AI Model Confidence: 68.4% • Last updated: Nov 24, 2025 • 10,847 simulations run
Dallas is still without Dak Prescott (out for season) and now lost Micah Parsons for 2–3 weeks with a high-ankle sprain. Cooper Rush has been serviceable, but the offense ranks 26th in EPA/play since Week 9 and the offensive line is allowing pressure on 42% of dropbacks — worst in the league.
Philly, meanwhile, is rolling. Saquon Barkley is averaging 6.8 yards per carry behind an elite O-line, Jalen Hurts has cut his turnovers to almost zero, and the defense is top-3 in opponent yards-per-play. Vic Fangio’s unit has generated pressure on 38% of snaps without blitzing — exactly the recipe that has tormented backup QBs this year.
Advanced metrics:
Eagles +0.18 EPA/play advantage
Cowboys -14.2% DVOA on 3rd down (dead last)
Weather forecast: 38°F with 12 mph wind — favors Philly’s run-heavy script
Best value bets (Kelly Criterion sizing): Eagles -6.5 (-110) → 7.2% edge Saquon Barkley over 92.5 rushing yards → 64% hit rate in similar spots Model projected final: Eagles 27 – Cowboys 16 Sharp money came in hard on Philadelphia overnight. The line opened -4.5 at most books and has steamed to -6.5 or -7 at Pinnacle and Circa, with 78% of dollars (but only 41% of tickets) on the Eagles — classic sharp vs public split. Referee Clay Martin’s crew throws the most offensive holding flags in the NFL (14.8 per game) and Dallas ranks 2nd in pre-snap penalties this season. That’s free yardage for an Eagles defensive line that already lives in the backfield. Public is pounding Cowboys +7 because “America’s Team at home,” but the model says that’s dead money. Disclaimer – For Entertainment & Educational Purposes Only The analysis, predictions, and information provided on this page are generated by an artificial intelligence model for entertainment and educational purposes only. They do not constitute gambling advice, betting tips, or a recommendation to wager money. Sports outcomes are inherently uncertain and past performance is not indicative of future results. You must be 18+ (or the legal age in your jurisdiction) to view this content. We do not facilitate betting, accept wagers, or receive any compensation from gambling operators. Always gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help.