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Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills – December 21, 2025
AI Model Confidence: 71.0% • Last updated: Nov 24, 2025 • 10,847 simulations run
The model is all over Buffalo at home.
KC’s offense has regressed hard without Rashee Rice (IR) and Pacheco still limited. They rank 22nd in yards per play and Mahomes is taking sacks at the highest rate of his career. Buffalo at home in December is 18–3 SU last 21 games and Josh Allen has a 122 passer rating when temperature <40°F.
Weather: 28°F, 15 mph wind, possible snow flurries.
Best bet:
Bills –2.5 (71% win probability)
Buffalo opened –1 and has been bet to –2.5 or –3 everywhere except one offshore still hanging –1.5 (instantly smashed). Travis Kelce’s yard prop dropped from 68.5 to 61.5 in 24 hours; wind kills his crossers. Public still thinks “Mahomes magic in December” — the model says not without a healthy O-line.
Projection: Bills 24 – Chiefs 17 Disclaimer – For Entertainment & Educational Purposes Only
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