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Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State Warriors – December 12, 2025
AI Model Confidence: 69.1% • Last updated: Nov 24, 2025 • 10,847 simulations run
This is the highest-total game of the week and the model loves the over.
LeBron is probable (foot) but has played 36+ minutes in six straight. Anthony Davis is destroying second-chance opportunities (4.1 offensive rebounds per game last 10). The Lakers are top-5 in pace and dead last in opponent 3P% defense when AD is off the floor — exactly when Steph hunts mismatches.
Golden State’s new motion offense is generating 1.42 points per transition possession (2nd in NBA). Draymond Green’s absence (calf) hurts rim protection but actually boosts spacing — GSW is shooting 41% from three without him. The last four head-to-heads went over by an average of 19 points.
Best value bets:
Over 237.5 → 9.1% edge
LeBron James over 8.5 assists (+105)
Betting market movement screams over. Total opened 234.5 and has been bet up to 237.5–238 despite 68% of tickets on the under — sharp money going the opposite way. Golden State home games with Draymond off the floor average 241.8 points this season, and the Lakers rank dead last in transition defense. Books are begging you to take the under — don’t.
Projection: 124–118 Lakers Disclaimer – For Entertainment & Educational Purposes Only The analysis, predictions, and information provided on this page are generated by an artificial intelligence model for entertainment and educational purposes only. They do not constitute gambling advice, betting tips, or a recommendation to wager money. Sports outcomes are inherently uncertain and past performance is not indicative of future results. You must be 18+ (or the legal age in your jurisdiction) to view this content. We do not facilitate betting, accept wagers, or receive any compensation from gambling operators. Always gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help.