Manchester City vs Liverpool – December 14, 2025

AI Model Confidence: 38% City – 31% Draw – 31% Liverpool • Last updated: Nov 24, 2025 • 10,847 simulations run

The model has this dead even and loves the draw-no-bet angle.

City are missing Rodri and Haaland is only 75% fit (ankle). Without Rodri they drop from +0.44 xG differential to –0.08. Liverpool’s press ranks 1st in PPDA and has forced 28 high turnovers leading directly to shots this season. However, Arne Slot’s side struggles to break low blocks away from home.

These two have drawn 7 of the last 12 league meetings at the Etihad.

Best bets:

• Draw +260 (6.8% edge)

• Liverpool Draw-No-Bet +105
  

This is the most “draw-heavy” big-six fixture of the season on paper. Money has come for the draw at +260–+275 across sharp books, dropping the price from +310. Michael Oliver is referee — he’s awarded exactly zero penalties in his last eight City games and only one in his last ten Liverpool matches. That kills the chances of a late winner from the spot.

Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (18%), 2-1 City (15%), 1-2 Liverpool (14%) Disclaimer – For Entertainment & Educational Purposes Only The analysis, predictions, and information provided on this page are generated by an artificial intelligence model for entertainment and educational purposes only. They do not constitute gambling advice, betting tips, or a recommendation to wager money. Sports outcomes are inherently uncertain and past performance is not indicative of future results. You must be 18+ (or the legal age in your jurisdiction) to view this content. We do not facilitate betting, accept wagers, or receive any compensation from gambling operators. Always gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help.